FROM KILLER TO COMMON COLD: Herd Protection and the Transitional Phase of Covid-19
A Covid Book with answers! Too often, people don’t tell you what to expect from Covid-19. What is next? Where do we go from here?
FROM KILLER TO COMMON COLD: Herd Protection and the Transitional Phase of Covid-19 has some answers.
What if we start by understanding what a virus wants? And finish by understanding the END-GAME of Covid-19: it will become another common cold coronavirus.
What Does a Virus Want?
A virus is a simple thing. It is not even a living thing until it takes over your cell to make more copies of itself. The key to understanding Covid-19 is to know that there are other human coronaviruses in the world that provide insight. Pandemic influenza also provides insight, but you need to be careful with comparisons.
Even though all viruses want the same thing- to make more copies of themselves- not all viruses are the same. But, like influenza, it is important to understand we cannot eradicate Covid-19
We Cannot Eradicate Covid-19
Looking at other human coronaviruses, some have been eliminated from populations, and some live among us every day of the year. The latter, the common cold coronaviruses are endemic. They are wide spread and cause the common cold. Covid-19 will become the common cold, too.
And we can help it!
Covid Book: From Killer To Common Cold
Herd Protection not Herd Immunity
Learn how herd immunity is impossible given the immune response to human coronaviruses. With or without a vaccine, we will need to learn to live with Covid-19. How does the human immune system work against viruses, and how does this shape the evolutionary pressures we place on a virus?
Herd Protection may happens sooner than we think and lead to the Transitional Phase.
The Transitional Phase of Covid-19
What do the next 2 or 5 years have in store for us? How will Covid-19 Transition from pandemic to the common cold? This Covid Book, even if it does not provide all the answers, starts asking the right questions. How can we live with Covid-19 in the world?
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How Can We Live with Covid-19 in the World?
Remember that we are in a global pandemic. This is the new normal. And, this is a marathon not a sprint.
There is no reason to think that anything will be different two years from now. With or without a vaccine, with or without an effective treatment, Covid-19 will continue in our community for the next 2-5 years. Cases and deaths will continue. Hot spots will fire up stochastically around our community. We are in this for the long haul.
This is the new normal. We need to start thinking with the end in mind. We need to understand the end game. Then, we can best understand how to live with Covid-19 in the world.
Covid Book: How will Covid-19 end?
Covid-19 will become endemic. It will become the fifth common cold coronavirus. Meanwhile, we need to get past the herd protection threshold. Herd immunity is not possible given immunity is temporary and not entirely protective. Herd Protection will happen sooner in some places than other. It depends on many factors discussed in this Covid Book.
After the epidemics are over, new cases do not go away. With or without a vaccine, we must learn how to live with Covid-19 in the world. What will the next few years look like, how can you protect yourself, and how can we help Covid-19 reach its destiny—to become the common cold?
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